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Middle East Weekly News Analysis

News Summary
Date
News Week
12/03/25 to 12/10/25
Week 49

Economic News and Events

  • Gulf equity markets were modestly positive around 9 December as investors awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision, showing ongoing sensitivity to global monetary policy. (Reuters, 2025)
  • Reuters coverage noted that most major Gulf indices gained, suggesting investor confidence in fiscal buffers and state-led diversification strategies.(Reuters, 2025)
  • PwC’s November 2025 outlook reported strong non-oil growth in GCC states, with hospitality in Oman and retail/wholesale in Qatar performing particularly well. (PWC,2025)
  • This non-oil momentum gave governments some insulation from external shocks linked to the Gaza war and global demand volatility.(PWC,2025)
  • Egypt posted close to 5% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2025 despite reduced Suez Canal revenues and tourism due to conflict-driven rerouting and risk perceptions.(PWC, 2025)
  • Analysts stressed that a more durable Gaza ceasefire would be critical for supporting Egypt’s medium-term growth and easing pressure on neighboring economies such as Jordan and Lebanon.(PWC, 2025)
  • A separate PwC report estimated that roughly US$300 billion of corporate value in the Middle East is “at stake” in 2025 as firms confront digital disruption, energy transition, and climate risk.(PWC,2025)
  • The report argued that about three-quarters of sectors are at or near peak transformation pressure, implying deep changes to employment patterns and investment priorities.(PWC,2025)
  • Gulf-focused business outlets highlighted continuing efforts to position the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar as hubs for finance, technology, and entrepreneurship despite geopolitical headwinds.(Gulf times, 2025)
  • Overall, the early-December snapshot combined short-term market resilience with acknowledgment of long-run structural challenges across the region.(PWC,2025)

Political News and Events

  • The core political focus was on managing the Gaza war’s “second phase,” with attention shifting from intensive bombardment to ceasefire mechanics and post-war governance debates.(ACLED, 2025)
  • Israel’s decision to reopen the Allenby/King Hussein Bridge crossing with Jordan for goods and aid indicated renewed security and logistical coordination with Amman. (Reuters, 2025)
  • This reopening also had political symbolism, suggesting limited responsiveness to international pressure over humanitarian access for Palestinians.(Reuters, 2025)
  • U.S. regional policy under President Trump, marked by earlier strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and strong backing for Israel, continued to define the balance of power in the Levant and Gulf.(CSIS,2025)
  • Analysis stressed that this U.S. posture has contributed to a more polarized order, with Iran and its partners on one side and a U.S.–Israel–Arab security camp on the other. (CSIS, 2025)
  • Regional commentary argued that the Abraham Accords framework had survived two years of conflict and was still expanding in security cooperation. (Jpost, 2025)
  • This durability of normalization highlighted a divergence between state-level policy and popular sentiment in several Arab countries.(Arab News)
  • Conflict-monitoring showed that while direct violence in Gaza had eased somewhat, Hamas was consolidating control, raising questions about de facto political arrangements absent a negotiated settlement.(ACLED, 2025)
  • Think-tank pieces framed U.S. engagement as essential to any long-term political architecture in Gaza, even as regional actors sought greater autonomy.(CSIS,2025)
  • Across the region, earlier protests and public statements kept Palestine at the center of political discourse, constraining how Arab governments could publicly align with Israel.(Arab News, 2025)

Cultural News and Events

  • Cultural coverage in early December kept Gaza and Palestine at the center, with Middle East Monitor foregrounding stories of humanitarian suffering.(Middle East Monitor,2025)
  • MEMO emphasized the role of personal testimony, especially from women and children, in documenting daily life under blockade and bombardment.(Middle East Monitor,2025)
  • Projects such as “Voices of Resistance: Diaries of Genocide” were presented as key vehicles for preserving memory and articulating Palestinian agency.(Middle East Monitor,2025)
  • Such works blur boundaries between literature, human-rights documentation, and political activism, reflecting a broader regional trend in cultural production.(Middle East Monitor, 2025)
  • Academic journals hosted by Cambridge University Press, including Review of Middle East Studies, continued to publish research on Islam, nationalism, and cultural identity in the region.(Cambridge, 2025)
  • Articles on topics like internationalist Islam and Palestinian politics provided intellectual context for the contemporary resurgence of pro-Palestine mobilizations.(Cambridge,2025)
  • The International Journal of Middle East Studies featured work on music, urban culture, and state–society relations in cities like Beirut and Doha, indirectly enriching debates on cultural change under authoritarian and semi-authoritarian regimes.(Cambridge,2025)
  • Together, activist writing, diary projects, and scholarly publications underscored how culture is being used to contest dominant narratives about security and normalization. (Cambridge,2025)
  • These outputs also contribute to a transnational cultural sphere, circulating in Arabic and English across the Middle East and diaspora communities.(Cambridge,2025)
  • The overall cultural field in early December thus remained heavily inflected by questions of justice, memory, and decolonization linked to Gaza and Palestine. (Cambridge,2025)

Social News and Events

  • Humanitarian reporting from Gaza described ongoing deaths from starvation and severe malnutrition, particularly among children, as a consequence of siege conditions and limited aid flows.(Middle east monitor,2025)
  • Such conditions were shown to reshape household strategies, with families forced to ration food, skip meals, and rely on informal networks to survive.(Middle East Monitor,2025)
  • Conflict-monitoring for December indicated a shift from peak bombardment to chronic insecurity, characterized by shortages, damaged infrastructure, and contested local governance under Hamas.(ACLED, 2025)
  • This shift implies a transition from immediate mass-casualty events to long-duration public-health and psychosocial crises.(ACLED,2025)
  • Earlier large-scale protests in Jordan against the Gaza war and ties with Israel continued to influence public discourse, even if the largest marches occurred months before this week.(Arab News,2025)
  • Coverage of these protests emphasized public anger at both the war and domestic socioeconomic conditions, linking Palestine solidarity to broader grievances.(Arab News,2025)
  • Analyses of Israel’s occupation regime highlighted how movement restrictions, land seizures, and differentiated legal systems structure everyday life for Palestinians in the West Bank and East Jerusalem.(Rulac,2025)
  • These structural conditions serve as the background to the acute humanitarian emergency in Gaza, illustrating the continuity between “normal” occupation and wartime crisis.(Rulac,2025)
  • Regional public opinion remained strongly sympathetic to Palestinians, constraining governments that are deepening security and economic ties with Israel.(Arab news,2025)
  • Altogether, social reporting in early December painted a picture of entrenched hardship, persistent mobilization, and a widening gap between popular sentiment and elite policy in parts of the Middle East.(Arab news,2025)

References

11/25/25 to 12/02/25
Week 48

Economic News and Events

  • A UN-linked assessment on 25 November characterised the Palestinian economy as suffering its worst recorded collapse, driven by the prolonged Gaza war and intensified restrictions in the West Bank.(Reuters,2025)
  • The same analysis estimated that combined output in Gaza and the West Bank shrank by around 30% between 2022 and 2024, effectively wiping out most of the fragile growth seen since the early 2000s.(US News, Reuters,2025)
  • GDP per capita in the occupied Palestinian territory fell to roughly early-2000s levels, erasing about 22 years of development gains and reinforcing the idea of a “lost generation” in economic terms.(UNCTAD,2025)
  • UNCTAD ranked the Palestinian downturn among the ten most severe economic collapses worldwide since 1960, placing it in a small group of extreme wartime and systemic crises.
  • The assessments warned that Gaza’s destruction of infrastructure, housing, and productive capital would lock the territory into long-term dependence on large-scale external assistance unless accompanied by a major political shift.
  • Israeli media emphasised that the war not only reduced Palestinian GDP but also significantly undermined PA fiscal capacity and employment, further complicating any security-economic coordination.(jpost,2025)
  • The Global Humanitarian Overview for 2025 situated Gaza’s collapse within a broader pattern of macro-economic stress, high debt, and conflict in MENA, especially in Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen.(OCHA,2024)
  • Iran announced plans to raise prices on some subsidised fuels under “limited conditions,” signalling movement toward long-discussed subsidy reform while trying to avoid the unrest triggered by past price hikes.(Reuters,2025)
  • Analysts warned that even calibrated fuel price increases could aggravate inflation and revive protest dynamics in a context already marked by economic grievances and political mistrust.(Wilson Center,2025)
  • Commentators increasingly framed the Palestinian economic crisis as a structural risk to regional stability and to any lasting diplomatic settlement, blurring the line between development policy and hard security strategy.(Reuters,2025)

Political News and Events

  • Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar convened in Cairo on 25 November to discuss a second phase of the Gaza ceasefire focused on security arrangements and hostage issues, underscoring how regional middle powers are institutionalising their mediation roles around the conflict.(Reuters,2025)
  • Even as negotiations advanced, low-level Israeli–Hamas violence and Israeli strikes in and around Gaza continued, revealing a gap between formal ceasefire language and the de-escalation needed for meaningful political transition.(Reuters,2025)
  • A UN briefing on 25 November reported at least 127 Lebanese civilians killed by Israeli strikes since an earlier ceasefire, highlighting Lebanon as a secondary but highly volatile theatre deeply tied to the Gaza file through Hezbollah–Israel deterrence dynamics.(Reuters,2025)
  • Syrian security forces used live ammunition to disperse rival protests in an Alawite-majority heartland on 25 November, suggesting that even constituencies long seen as regime pillars are politically restless and must be tightly controlled.(Reuters,2025)
  • Hamas’ announcement on 25 November that it would hand over the remains of an Israeli hostage formalised the use of bodies and remains as core elements of ceasefire diplomacy, connecting humanitarian closure for families with strategic calculations on both sides.(Reuters,2025)
  • On 2 December, Israel prepared to receive remains believed to be one of the last two Israeli hostages in Gaza, with forensic testing planned; this illustrated how the “endgame” of the hostage issue is being managed through highly technical but politically charged processes.(Reuters,2025)
  • Analytical work during November described a “tiered” Gulf and regional security order in which some states enjoy strong US guarantees, others hedge between great powers, and conflict zones like Gaza, Yemen, and parts of Iraq remain loosely governed security peripheries.
  • Conflict-event data for November showed that militias and armed movements—Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, factions in Iraq and Yemen—continue to set red lines for state actors, limiting how far governments can move on de-escalation or reform.(ACLED,2025)
  • Broader analysis of 2025 political “swings” in the Middle East stressed that episodic reform openings coexist with renewed authoritarian retrenchment and militarisation, producing a highly fluid and often contradictory political landscape.

Cultural News and Events

  • Across Gaza, southern Lebanon, and parts of northern Israel, public life in late November was oriented around mourning, remembrance, and resilience practices rather than conventional festivals or arts seasons.(Reuters,UNOCHA,2024)
  • Conflict-event data and qualitative reporting pointed to internal violence and public punishments by Hamas in Gaza, contributing to a culture of fear and altering community perceptions of legitimate authority.(ACLED,2025)
  • Attacks targeting Alawites and other minorities during this period drew on long-standing sectarian storylines, embedding sectarianism further into Syria’s social memory and cultural production.(ACLED,2025)
  • Analyses of Syria’s efforts to balance the United States, Russia, Iran, and Israel framed the country as a space where competing geopolitical projects shape debates over sovereignty, identity, and cultural autonomy.(Diplomatmagazine,2025)
  • Repeated internal and cross-border displacement over more than a decade has changed language practices, religious spaces, and educational patterns, producing new hybrid community identities.(OCHA,2024)
  • Reporting on Yemen’s war and Red Sea tensions showed how different actors mobilise cultural and historical narratives—Zaydi heritage, republicanism, Islamic solidarity—to justify continued conflict.(cfr, security council report,2025)
  • Israeli and Palestinian media highlighted images and narratives of destroyed neighbourhoods and infrastructure, turning ruined urban spaces themselves into potent cultural symbols of loss and resistance.(Reuters, jpost,2025)
  • Humanitarian and policy documents increasingly linked the protection of historic sites and religious buildings to broader campaigns against indiscriminate attacks and for respect of international law.(cfr,2025)
  • Analyses of mid-2025 trends noted that youth in Gaza, Iraq, and Lebanon increasingly employ art, music, and digital platforms to process trauma and to criticise both armed groups and state elites.(Wilson Center,2025)
  • Overall, the cultural field in late November 2025 was dominated less by scheduled arts programming and more by narratives of survival, displacement, and contested memory across multiple conflict zones.(ACLED,2025)

Social News and Events

  • Israel’s return of 15 Palestinian bodies to Gaza on 26 November, within the framework of the ceasefire, illustrated how humanitarian gestures and negotiations over remains shape public perceptions of justice and closure.(ap news,2025)
  • Reports that Israeli forces killed Palestinian men in the West Bank after they appeared to surrender intensified debates about rules of engagement and accountability, reinforcing feelings of insecurity among civilians.(ap news,2025)
  • Event data and conflict trackers showed that raids, settler violence, and border incidents persisted after ceasefire announcements, revealing that ceasefires alone do not immediately transform daily security realities.(ACLED, cfr,2025)
  • UN humanitarian reporting described large populations in Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, and Yemen as repeatedly displaced, often multiple times, making “chronic displacement” a core social condition.(OCHA,2024)
  • Damage to housing, health facilities, schools, and energy infrastructure in places like Gaza and Beirut entrenched multi-year social vulnerability, limiting access to essential services even when front-line fighting pauses.(Reuters,2025)
  • Refugees and internally displaced persons across MENA face shrinking options for voluntary return, resettlement, or local integration, creating mounting pressures on already strained host communities.(CFR,2025)
  • Tracking of the Yemen and Red Sea conflict underlined that millions, particularly children remain in acute need of assistance, with limited progress on nationwide political settlement translating directly into continued social suffering.(security council report,2025)
  • Regional analyses showed very low levels of public confidence in governments’ ability to deliver security and economic opportunity, linking persistent conflict and corruption to a widening legitimacy gap.(Wilson center,2025)
  • Social movements and local NGOs in Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine increasingly connect demands for jobs, services, and rights with calls to curb the power of armed groups and to reform security sectors, signalling a shift toward more explicitly demilitarisation-oriented agendas.(Reuters,2025)

References